Friday, March 01, 2013

Buy when everyone else is selling

I follow the price of gold because gold is insurance against what governments do, debase their own currencies so that voters can be bribed with their own money.

In the long run, an ounce of gold has on average been the same as the cost of a really good suit of clothes.

In the short run, the madness of crowds sends the price of gold gyrating compared to other commodities. The chart below goes crazy around the time the US decoupled its currency from the gold standard in 1971 but the increasing volatility also coincides with various new forms of leveraged speculation in both wheat and gold.
You can't get rich buying insurance, but you may be able to avoid getting poor when the event you are insuring against actually happens.

And if you are buying insurance, why not buy it when it is on sale? Central Fund of Canada trades with the symbol CEF.A. All that CEF.A holds is a few billion dollars worth of gold and silver. When everyone wants gold and silver, there is a premium to buy CEF.A, often between 5 and 9% of the value of the bullion in the fund. Last night, the premium was 0.0%. Yesterday's figure can be found by scrolling down to Premium/-Discount at this link, which is live, so whenever you are reading this you are seeing last night's figures, not Feb 28 2013.

This is not investment advice, just an observation of a published fact.

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