Thursday, December 30, 2010

A useful response to CO2 Hand-wringing

I saw a friend's post on Facebook the other day that quoted a regional government website from BC:
"Climate change is a complex, multi-year challenge for our region. It is a wake-up call to a system in decline"
All I can say is
"I am enjoying the current interglacial period, which is overdue to end. Don't you think we are going to need all the warming we can get?"
(By the way, note the effortless slide into Marxism implied in the BC position. If the science is settled, for something that hasn't actually happened yet, why is the policy response based on a philosophy which has been proven an utter failure?")

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Big trends

If you spend some time learning the lessons of markets, you begin to appreciate the simple wisdom of well-worn phrases like "The Trend is Your Friend."

Whether your approach is technical (what is everyone else doing?) or fundamental (what should this investment be worth if people came to their senses?), there is value in identifying trends and following them until evidence comes in that they have reversed themselves.

Trading out of a stock on its way up, or selling it at the same price on its way down, will make you the same amount of money. Imagining that you can call the turning point consistently is mostly self-delusion. Get on board with the big trends, and ride them until after they turn.

So what are we to make of this trend? The ratio between the price of gold and the value of bonds has been trending relentlessly in favor of gold since before the beginning of this century. The fine print, which is readable at the link but perhaps not on my embedded chart, says the market is anticipating inflation, as evidenced by the steeply rising trend.