Monday, March 10, 2008

Global Warming, Economic Crisis, Zigging vs Zagging

Here is an interesting editorial on a coming collision between economic meltdown, peak oil, the price of gold, solar activity levels, and just about any other hot-button issue of today other than radical Islam.

The author, Brian Bloom, is an Aussie with an analytical mind, who starts by calling for an end to equivocation (although he uses the word "prevarication" which I equate with "lying", not with "being vague about one's meaning" which is what I think he really means). He posts some point-and-figure charts, which show trends up in the value of commodities over industrial stocks, and in gold bullion over oil, but not gold equities over gold bullion. He then analyzes interest rates and has some insights into what has been happening over the past 30 years.

He draws some conclusions, points to some unanswered basic questions, and then gifts us with some sunspot data that suggest there will be one more burst of sunspot activity, leading to the last great panic of global warming hysteria, followed by cooling.

But here's a telling quote:
In an environment where the world is running out of oil, there is no way the world economy can keep growing unless/until new energy paradigms have been embraced that can have an economically stimulative impact.
If we all get suckered into solar power and general greenliness (it's next to godliness, you know) and then the sun goes away behind clouds, where will we all end up? Zigging when we should have been zagging, in Bloom's opinion.
From the year 2012 onwards, after the coming sunspot cycle has peaked and cloud cover begins to increase once again, the world's industrial infrastructure might find itself chronically short of electrical power (because fossil fuels will be less readily available and incoming solar energy will not be as powerful as previously thought), and the world economy might become terminally damaged as a result.
Check out Bloom's outline of his upcoming, related novel at his other website.

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